Political Advertising Poised to Rock Media Landscape in 2024

The Olympics and the U.S. Presidential election cycle. Every four years, these events coincide on the calendar, as they do in 2024.

However, this discourse won't dwell on the athletic feats of the Olympic games. Instead, we’ll delve into the impending onslaught of political campaigns, which are poised to inundate the advertising sphere, presenting a multitude of challenges for nonpolitical advertisers — challenges that seem to compound with each passing election cycle.

With a fiercely divisive Presidential race, closely contested Senate battles, and contentious ballot measures, political ad spending is set to soar to unprecedented heights. Simultaneously, advancements in generative AI may foster an environment rife with misinformation and disinformation, particularly on social media platforms.

For marketing and advertising leaders operating outside the political arena, navigating this landscape is crucial. They must strategize how to optimize their expenditures amidst heightened demand and localized inventory shortages, all while safeguarding their clients or brands from the risks associated with proximity to negative political content and AI-generated falsehoods.

To achieve this, marketers need to discern when and where these challenges will most significantly impact their advertising budgets, and they should bolster their control over ad placements to ensure brand safety.

Inventory Considerations:

Projections suggest that political ad spending in 2024 could range between $10.2 billion and $12 billion, marking a significant increase compared to the previous election cycle. As a result, advertisers may face higher CPMs, particularly during specific timeframes, in certain locations, and across particular channels. While inventory scarcity is a concern, there should still be sufficient inventory available, with pricing being the primary concern for most advertisers.

Timing Considerations:

Historical data indicates that approximately 50% of the year's political spending occurs in the 30 days leading up to the election, with 25% concentrated in the final ten days. In 2024, this trend may start earlier due to early in-person and mail-in voting. However, the election is unlikely to significantly dominate advertising much sooner than that. Although early voting methods have seen gradual increases, they tend to attract voters who are already decided, rather than the coveted undecided demographic. Consequently, advertisers can expect the highest prices and scarcest inventory throughout October and into November.

Market Considerations:

Geography will play a pivotal role in shaping advertisers' experiences during this election cycle. Swing states and counties will be the primary targets of political campaigns, leading to fluctuations in ad rates and inventory availability. For the presidential election, seven states—Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina—are expected to witness heightened campaign activity. Within these states, specific counties are deemed pivotal, and advertisers targeting these areas can anticipate higher CPMs and limited inventory.

Apart from the presidential election, key Senate races and divisive ballot measures will drive significant political advertising in various cities, including Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Reno, Pittsburgh, Missoula, Billings, Boston, Wilkes Barre-Scranton, Butte-Bozeman, Detroit, Los Angeles, Charlotte, Atlanta, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Harrisburg, Washington D.C., and Raleigh-Durham. It's imperative for marketers to research the political climate in their chosen locations to anticipate how advertising dynamics may shift accordingly.

Channel Considerations:

Video platforms are particularly favored by political advertisers, leading to increased demand across media channels. Consequently, CTV, linear TV, online display video, and select social networks accepting political ad dollars will experience the most significant impact. Notably, CTV is expected to attract a substantial portion of digital political ad spend in 2024, marking a considerable increase from the previous election cycle.

Furthermore, advertising on linear television poses the risk of being displaced from ad slots due to the FCC's Equal Time Rule. In competitive environments, where inventory is limited, this rule may result in other advertisers being displaced to accommodate political campaigns, particularly in the run-up to Election Day.

The is gearing up to be perhaps the most highly contested ever, and this election cycle in 2024 highlights the challenges and opportunities awaiting advertisers. By understanding the nuances of political advertising dynamics — ranging from inventory and timing considerations to location-specific targeting — marketers can navigate this complex landscape with agility and foresight.